College Football Week 12 Preview and Predictions

In just his second collegiate start, Stanford's Kevin Hogan needs to play very well if the Cardinal are going to upset Oregon. (Ezra Shaw)

5. Kent State (9-1) @ Bowling Green (7-3) - 12:00 PM EST, ESPN3

The Mid-American Conference has some very good teams this year. Ohio University has been the focal point of most of the national media attention. However, the winner of this game will almost certainly play a very good Northern Illinois team in the MAC Championship. Kent State's only loss this season came way back on September 8 at Kentucky. Since then, the Golden Flashes have rolled off eight straight wins, including impressive road victories at Rutgers and Miami (OH). After starting the season 1-3, Bowling Green has rattled off six straight wins. With a 5-1 conference record, the Falcons are in position to upset Kent State and move into first place in the MAC East.

Prediction: Kent State 31 Bowling Green 24

4. Utah State (8-2) @ #20 Louisiana Tech (9-1) - 4:00 PM EST, ESPN3

The Western Athletic Conference is another loaded small conference that is still up for grabs. Utah State's only two losses have come by a combined five points. The Aggies defense will need to play very well as they face their toughest offensive opponent yet. Louisiana Tech's only loss was by two in a shootout with Texas A&M. The Bulldogs offense has been next to impossible to slow down. They have scored at least 44 points in every game this season except for one.

Prediction: Louisiana Tech 31 Utah State 27

3. #22 Rutgers (8-1) @ Cincinnati (7-2) - 12:00 PM EST, Big East Network/ESPN3

Rutgers has rolled through all of its competition this year, expect for the surprising home loss to Kent State that ended their quest for perfection. Due to last week's Syracuse upset of Louisville, the Scarlet Knights remain in position to win the Big East and potentially a BCS bowl berth. They have a tough road test this week before them. Back-to-back losses to Toledo and Louisville ended Cincinnati's hopes of a perfect season. If the Bearcats can pull the upset here, they will be back in the picture to win the Big East.

Prediction: Rutgers 24 Cincinnati 20

2. Wake Forest (5-5) @ #3 Notre Dame (10-0) - 3:30 PM EST, NBC

Wake Forest may only be 5-5, but Notre Dame has learned to not overlook any opponents. The Demon Deacons have had a season full of ups and downs. They come into this game off of their worst loss of the season (by 31 to North Carolina State). Notre Dame has found a way to win every game of the season, even though some have been prettier than others. The Fighting Irish must focus on the task at hand and not look ahead to their game at USC next week.

Prediction: Notre Dame 20 Wake Forest 3

1. #13 Stanford (8-2) @ #2 Oregon (10-0) - 8:00 PM EST, ABC

After a heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame in overtime, Stanford has won four straight games. The Cardinal seem to keep improving, even with a change at quarterback. Junior Josh Nunes has been benched in favor of freshman Kevin Hogan. Last week, Hogan threw three touchdown passes in Stanford's solid win over Oregon State. Undefeated Oregon is of course known by their explosive offense. In their last two games, quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrown for 681 yards and 10 touchdowns. The Ducks' De'Anthony Thomas is a danger man any time he steps onto the football field.

Prediction: Oregon 45 Stanford 31

Breaking Down the Sweet Sixteen From a Geographical Standpoint

No Teams From the Western Half of the U.S.

Everyone knows the Pac-12 was down this year in basketball, but apparently the whole western half of the country was as well. WAC favorite Nevada bowed out in their conference tournament. The conference that looked the most dominant was the Mountain West. They received four bids (three of which were #6 or higher), but the conference finished with a combined record of only 1-4 in the tournament. No teams from this vast geographic region made it to the Sweet Sixteen.

Midwest Central

Since the West produced nothing, someone had to step up, and the Midwest happily filled the void. The two best conferences by far this season, the Big 12 and Big Ten, are both centered in the heart of Midwestern farm land. But it is more than just these conferences. The Midwest took commanding control of the tournament. 12 of the remaining Sweet Sixteen teams are from the geographic region. Making the odds of a champion coming from the Midwest increasingly likely.

Ohio Domination

The Midwest conquered as a region, but one of its state dominated like no other. That state was Ohio. The state got only four teams into the tournament, but all of them are Sweet Sixteen teams. That means that one-quarter of the teams left in the NCAA tournament are from Ohio. What makes it even more impressive is that these teams aren't even a highly ranked group as a whole. The teams consist of a #2 seed (Ohio State), a #6 seed (Cincinnati), a #10 seed (Xavier), and a #13 seed (Ohio University). Ohioans should be proud of their basketball. One doesn't see a feat like this everyday.

Leap Day Bubble Watch

Tomorrow is Leap Day. It only comes once every four years, so it is kind of a big deal. The NCAA Tournament only comes once a year in March and is kind of a big deal too. With March quickly coming, teams need to do all they can to show the tournament committee why they should be invited to the Big Dance. Five teams have a big shot to make a case one way or another on Wednesday.

Miami - 17-10 (8-6), RPI: 47, SOS: 38

Few people thought Miami would be able to make it to where they have a chance to make the tournament, but here they are. A big reason why is because they picked up their second win over a ranked opponent in a span of three weeks. The Hurricane's resume has some definite holes (3-9 record agaisnt the RPI Top 100 and a 5-7 road/neutral record), so they can't sit back and relax now. Tomorrow they play at NC State. This will be a tough win to earn, but one they could really use. A loss won't burst their bubble, but a win would certainly help their case.

Cincinnati - 20-9 (10-6), RPI: 76, SOS: 132

Cincinnati seems to be a team that can't decide whether or not they deserve to go to the Big Dance. Last week, they got a big win over Louisville, but then lost at South Florida. That isn't a knock on the Bulls, but the Bearcats' lack of consistency has hurt the resume significantly. They have five wins over the RPI Top 50, but their non-conference play was mostly pathetic (i.e. SOS of 323 and a loss to Presbyterian at home). No team in the last 15 years has ever gotten an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament with a RPI outside the Top 75. Cincinnati's last regular season chance to impress the committee comes tomorrow when they host Marquette. An upset win would be huge for the Bearcats.

Purdue - 19-10 (9-7), RPI: 39, SOS: 24

Personally, I have never thought Purdue's resume was as strong as people make it out to be. However, they finally got a big win at Michigan last Saturday. Prior to that game, the Boilermakers were 0-7 against ranked opponents, but the win over the Wolverines may have been the signature one they needed. Tomorrow night, they host Penn State. You may think no big deal, but the Nittany Lions won by 20 in their matchup earlier this year. While that was a long time ago, Purdue can't afford a let down after their big win. It could be quite detrimental.

Texas - 18-11 (8-8), RPI: 55, SOS: 29

Interestingly enough, Texas has a similar resume to Purdue. They have a middling conference record and have struggled against ranked opponents as well (0-6). A 4-9 record against the RPI Top 100 and a 4-9 road/neutral mark puts the Longhorn squarely on the bubble. They know they can't afford another bad loss. They survived last Saturday's overtime bout with Texas Tech, but tomorrow they need to take care of business against Oklahoma. A win won't seal their fate, but a loss might certainly.

Mississippi State - 19-10 (6-8), RPI: 63, SOS: 68

A mere 2 1/2 weeks ago, Mississippi State seemed like a lock for the NCAA tournament. However, they have now lost five in a row and seem to be in disarray. When asked about his team's odds of making the tourament, team star Arnett Moultrie said, "Maybe not. Probably not." That is not what you want to hear if you are a Bulldogs fan. This team is now only 6-8 in SEC play and have just a 5-7 road/neutral record. Mississippi State travels to conference doormat South Carolina tomorrow. The Gamecocks did upset Alabama early this year, so anything is possible. A Bulldogs loss would almost certainly burst their once promising bubble.

Weekend Special: Who Should be on Upset Alert?

Saturday's Games to Watch

West Virginia @ #4 Syracuse - 1:00PM, ESPNU

The key matchup here will be how Syracuse handles West Virginia star Kevin Jones inside. The Orange are without Fab Melo once again, so they will need their other big men to step up defensively and on the glass. Jones as been an absolute force in Big East play this season. If the Mountaineers have a shot at the upset, they will need Jones to be that stellar again.

Texas @ #7 Baylor - 1:00PM, CBS

Texas is an improving young team that is fully capable of pulling an upset. However, they will play an angry Baylor team that is coming off its first two losses of the season. If they Bears exploit their advantage inside, they should get the win.

#16 Mississippi State @ #13 Florida - 1:30PM, ESPN3

Mississippi State has the size and strength inside to possibly give Florida some trouble. The Gators guards have been playing great and their team defense has stepped up in a big way as of late. This game should give us a better picture of both teams chances in March.

#5 Kansas @ Iowa State - 2:00PM, ESPN

This is a popular upset pick among the experts. Iowa State has an edge on the perimeter with their great guard play. They also have a big man in Royce White, who is capable of holding Kansas stud Thomas Robinson in check. The Hilton Coliseum should be on a full tilt, so Kansas is going to have to play very well in order to exit as the victors.

Middle Tennessee @ Vanderbilt - 2:00PM

This is a statement game for Middle Tennessee. They have a 20-2 record overall and are 9-0 in Sun Belt Conference play. However, this is there last chance to get a signature non-conference win. Vanderbilt has had their ups and downs all season. It will be interesting to see how they play against an amped up Blue Raiders team.

Cincinnati @ Rutgers - 6:00PM, ESPN3

Cincinnati was cruising having won 10 out of 11 games. But then they dropped their last two prior to this one. Rutgers has had their moments this season and have shown signs of hope for the future. The Scarlet Knights would love to get another quality win under their belts. It will be interesting to see how the Bearcats bounce back. If they are going to be a serious contender, this is a must win game.

#20 St. Mary's @ BYU - 9:00PM, ESPNU

St. Mary's convincingly won the first matchup of these two teams. The Gaels are currently looking like the favorites to win the West Coast Conference. BYU is currently sitting square on the bubble. They have a solid record, but a lack of quality wins. If they were able to pull the upset here, this would be a big step in the right direction.

Marshall @ Memphis - 9:00PM, CSS

Both of these teams are near the top of what is a crowded Conference USA standings. Marshall had some solid wins early in the season and even competed well at the Carrier Dome with Syracuse. As of late, the Thundering Herd have stumbled a bit, losing three in a row. On the other hand, Memphis is playing some of its best basketball right now. The Tigers are winners of eight of their last nine. This is an intriguing matchup with clear conference implications.

Sunday's Games to Watch

Notre Dame @ #19 Connecticut - 12:00PM, ESPN3

Connecticut won the previous matchup in South Bend in convincing fashion, but much has changed since then. Notre Dame upset Syracuse handing them their first and only loss of the season so far. The Fighting Irish are playing with a lot of confidence right now. Conversely, Connecticut has lost four out of their last six. The Huskies are looking to return to form. This is another statement game for both of these teams.

#22 Michigan @ #3 Ohio State - 1:00PM, CBS

Everyone normally talks about this rivalry in reference to a football game, but this is matchup of two Top 25 teams among the top of the Big Ten. Michigan has had their ups and downs, but are 3-2 against Top 25 teams, including a big win over in-state rival Michigan State. Ohio State has looked dominant at times, but there has also been a couple of pitfalls in their schedule so far this season. The Buckeyes will look to Jared Sullinger to lead the way once again. He is coming off a big game in a win over Penn State.

Big East Power Rankings: How Good is Cincinnati?

This is my January 19th breakdown of the Big East Conference Power Rankings from top to bottom. Some questions that are begging to be answered: Can Syracuse go undefeated?; How good is Cincinnati?; Does Seton Hall have a chance of making the tournament?; How can Pittsburgh be 0-6 in Big East play?

1. Syracuse Orange, 20-0 (7-0)

Best Wins: Stanford*, Florida, Marquette

Worst Losses: N/A

Analysis: There is no denying that Syracuse is the best team in the country right now. They are undefeated, but the question I have is how good are they. The wins against Florida and Marquette are quality ones, but the rest of their competition hasn't been that tough. They have played mostly lower-tier Big East teams in conference play so far. I don't think they will go undefeated. They have too many tough games left. However, that does not mean they aren't the best team in the country.

Next Game: Saturday @ Notre Dame

2. Cincinnati Bearcats, 15-4 (5-1)

Best Wins: Notre Dame, @Georgetown, @Connecticut

Worst Losses: Presbyterian, Marshall (OT), St. John's

Analysis: December 10, 2011 was one of the ugliest days in University of Cincinnati basketball history. The team lost to Queen City rival Xavier and fell to 5-3 on the season, but that wasn't the worst of it. At the end of the game, the Bearcat players got into a fight with the Musketeer players that led Cincinnati senior Yancy Gates stomp on the head of a Xavier player. Gates and three other Bearcats were suspended as a result. However, the fight seems to be the wakeup call the team needed. Since the fight, Cincinnati has gone 10-1, including three Top 25 upsets. Bearcat sophomore guard Sean Kilpatrick has led the way on the court.

Next Game: Saturday @ West Virginia

3. Georgetown Hoyas, 15-3 (5-2)

Best Wins: @Alabama, @Louisville, Marquette

Worst Losses: Kansas*, @West Virginia, Cincinnati

Analysis: Georgetown has put together an unexpectedly good season so far. The Hoyas are off to a great start at 15-3, including an eleven game winning streak. Senior guard Jason Clark has been leading the way. Clark scored a career-high 31 points in his last game against Depaul. For the Hoyas' success to continue, they are going to need Clark to keep playing well.

Next Game: Saturday vs. Rutgers

4. Marquette Golden Eagles, 15-4 (4-2)

Best Wins: @Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Louisville

Worst Losses: LSU, Vanderbilt, Georgetown

Analysis: Marquette's season started out amazingly as the Golden Eagles were 10-0, including a upset win at in-state rival Wisconsin. But then, things fell apart as the team lost three out of five. The team has righted the ship since winning three in a row, but it is difficult to know how good this team is. They were in position to upset Syracuse at the Carrier Dome, before they let it slip away late. If this team is going to make a deep run in the tournament that is the type of wins they are going to need to get. The heart of this Marquette team is their top two seniors, Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder.

Next Game: Saturday @ Providence

5. West Virginia Mountaineers, 14-5 (4-2)

Best Wins: Kansas State (2OT), Georgetown, @Marshall

Worst Losses: Kent State, @Mississippi State, @Seton Hall

Analysis: West Virginia has had their ups and down this season. While it has been mostly ups, it is difficult to know how good the Mountaineers really are. One thing that isn't difficult to figure out is how good Kevin Jones has been this season. He is averaging 20.4 ppg and 11.4 rpg on the season. In my opinion, he is making a great case to be Big East Player of the Year and even an All-American.

Next Game: Saturday vs. Cincinnati

6. Seton Hall Pirates, 15-4 (4-3)

Best Wins: @Dayton, West Virginia, Connecticut

Worst Losses: Northwestern, South Florida, Villanova

Analysis: Seton Hall might make the NCAA tournament. Who thought that before the season?Not many people I am sure. A pair of seniors, Herb Pope and Jordan Theodore, have stepped up big for second-year head coach Kevin Willard. The Pirates got off to a fantastic 15-2 start, but have now lost two in a row to South Florida and Villanova. Since neither of those teams are very talented, Seton Hall will look to bounce back in their next game after getting a week off.

Next Game: Wednesday vs. Notre Dame

7. Connecticut Huskies, 14-4 (4-3)

Best Wins: Florida State*, Harvard, West Virginia

Worst Losses: UCF, Seton Hall, Rutgers

Analysis: Connecticut is another tough team to get a read on. A big question for the Huskies is who they are going to have on the court. Freshman guard Ryan Boatright sat out games while being investigated by the NCAA, then he was cleared to play some games, and now he is sitting out again. Without Boatright, the team loses one of their scorers and, more importantly, depth at the guard positions. One player that might be the key to success for the Huskies is freshman Andre Drummond. If Drummond can develop into a dominant post player, this team will get much better. If he does not, I am not sold on this team making a deep tournament run right now.

Next Game: Saturday @ Tennessee

8. Louisville Cardinals, 14-5 (2-4)

Best Wins: Ohio, Vanderbilt (OT), Memphis

Worst Losses: Notre Dame (2OT), @Providence, @Marquette

Analysis: Everyone thought Louisville was really good when they were 12-0, but upon examining their schedule, one realizes that it was a mere illusion. Since their 12-0 start, the Cardinals have gone 2-5. Granted some of those games were against difficult opposition, but the problem is that those are the types of teams you are going to play come tournament time. Louisville might have a balanced attack that is distributed by Peyton Siva, but this team doesn't look ready to compete with the big boys.

Next Game: Saturday @ Pittsburgh

9. South Florida Bulls, 11-8 (4-2)

Best Wins: Rutgers, @Villanova, Seton Hall

Worst Losses: Old Dominion*, Penn State*, @Auburn

Analysis: South Florida has benefited from an easy Big East schedule so far to get to this point. The Bulls only have a 7-6 record against a mediocre non-conference schedule. The fact that they have done so well in Big East play so far, doesn't bode well for the conference. Interestingly enough, South Florida's remaining schedule isn't that difficult either. If the Bulls play well, they could be looking at a possible NIT bid.

Next Game: Sunday @ Depaul

10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 11-8 (3-3)

Best Wins: Florida (2OT), Connecticut, Notre Dame

Worst Losses: Illinois State*, Richmond*, Princeton

Analysis: Head coach Mike Rice is starting to turn around the Rutgers basketball program. It's a difficult job, but he is doing a great job of it. The upset wins over Florida and UConn are the types of wins he needs to get his players to believe in him and to help him recruit the best players he can. A pair of freshman guards, Eli Carter and Myles Mack, are the main ones helping lead the Scarlet Knight turnaround. If the team keeps playing well, they will definitely be deserving of NIT consideration.

Next Game: Saturday @ Georgetown

11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 11-8 (3-3)

12. Providence Friars, 12-7 (1-5)

13. Depaul Blue Demons, 10-8 (1-5)

14. Pittsburgh Panthers, 11-8 (0-6)

15. Villanova Wildcats, 9-10 (2-5)

16. St. John's Red Storm, 8-10 (2-5)

* Game played at neutral site