Matt Kemp does not have the historical numbers to back up his play like Pujols does. What he did have is a much better season last year. Kemp had a .324 average with 39 home runs, 124 RBIs, and 40 stolen bases. Conversely, Pujols hit .299 with 37 home runs, 99 RBIs, and 9 stolen bases. The concern here is that this was Kemp's breakout season. In 2010, he only hit .249 with 28 home runs, 89 RBIs, and 19 stolen bases. Kemp is five years younger than Pujols. It appears that he is entering the prime of his career, which means his numbers should only continue to rise.
Albert Pujols is one of the most consistent hitters in the history of baseball. His continual dominance is what earned him the nickname, The Machine. In Pujols' first ten years of his career, he hit .312 or better, 34 home runs or more, and had at least 103 RBIs. As you can see above, the only season of his career that he hasn't done that was last year. Some people have sighted that as a sign of decline. That seems unlikely, but even if it is true, those are some excellent numbers for a player supposedly in decline. It is true that Pujols will have to adjust to hitting in the tougher American League. He may get pitched around, but that happened in St. Louis too. No matter how good or bad the Cardinals were, Pujols consistently put up amazing numbers season after season. There does not seem to be any reason to think that will stop now.
Matt Kemp is the player on the rise, while Albert Pujols is certainly ageing. However, I cannot get around the consistency I have seen throughout the career of Pujols. Until Kemp shows me that type of consistency, I am not ready to pick him over Pujols. There is such a drastic difference between Kemp's 2010 and 2011 seasons. While I believe the latter is what Kemp's numbers will look like next few seasons, there isn't the same guarantee that a decade of Pujols play gives me. This does not mean that Kemp won't become the better hitter for the duration of their long-term contracts. It just means that right now I have more faith in Pujols.
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