Saturday, January 26, 2013

Africa Cup of Nations Group A Preview and Predictions

Striker Siyabonga Sangweni celebrates his goal during South Africa's 2-0 victory over Angola. (kickoff.com)
The group stage of the African Cup of Nations is beginning to come a close. Final match days will decide which two teams from each group advance to the knockout stage. Group A is the first group to have its final match day. That day is Sunday, January 27.

Before I preview the two matches, let's look at the all important group table and the possible advancement scenarios that come as a result.

(Graphic credit: ESPN.com)
South Africa will advance if:
  • They win or draw against Morocco
  • Cape Verde does not defeat Angola.
Cape Verde will advance if:
  • They defeat Angola
  • They draw with Angola and South Africa defeats Morocco
  • South Africa draw with Morocco and Cape Verde outscores Morocco
Morocco will advance if:
  • They defeat South Africa
  • They draw with South Africa and Cape Verde draws with Angola
  • Morocco outscores Cape Verde
Angola will advance if:
  • They defeat Cape Verde and South Africa defeats Morocco

Now that we have that mostly straightened out, we can focus on previewing this group's two final matches.

Angola vs. Cape Verde - 12:00 PM EST, ESPN3

In their opening game Angola played to draw with Morocco. Angola then got dominated by South Africa in a 2-0 loss. Cape Verde has drawn twice so far. The first was a scoreless one with South Africa. They played Morocco to a 1-1 draw in their second game. Angola has yet to score in the year's tournament, but Manucho Goncalves is their main threat to do so. Luis Carlos Platini has Cape Verde's only goal thus far. Angola needs to win this have any chance of advancing. The problem with that is that it plays exactly into Cape Verde's plans.
Prediction: Cape Verde 1 Angola 0
South Africa vs. Morocco - 12:00 PM EST, ESPN3 
As the tournament hosts, South Africa is playing under high expectations. Their fans were not too pleased with a 0-0 draw to Cape Verde in their opening match. South Africa though appeased them in the next game by scoring two goals in the group's only victory so far. Siyabonga Sangweni got them on the board first and Micheal Majoro added the second in the 62nd minute. In Morocco's opening game against Angola, neither team could find a way to score that ended in a 0-0 draw. They trailed Cape Verde 1-0 in their second game. Youssef El Arabi delievered the equalizer in the 78th minute to earn Morocco its second draw of tournament. All that South Africa needs is a draw to be certain that they will advance. I think they will back more defensively and hold off Morocco to pick up their result.

Prediction: South Africa 1 Morocco 1

Overall Prediction: South Africa (Group A winner) and Cape Verde (Group A runner-up) advance

Friday, January 25, 2013

Previewing the Final Weekend of January College Hoops

Trey Burke will look to lead Michigan to a victory in Champaign over Illinois with another shot at being No. 1 on the line. (Mike Stobe)
This is already the last weekend in January. It's hard to believe, but we only have one more full month until the NCAA tournament tips off. Conference matchups becoming increasingly important this time of year. My blog post will briefly preview the top five games to watch this weekend.

5. North Carolina (13-5, 3-2 ACC) at #18 NC State (15-4, 4-2 ACC) - Saturday, 7:00 PM EST, ESPN

This game features two rival trending in opposite directions. On January 10, North Carolina lost at home to Miami by nine points. The loss dropped their record to 10-5 and 0-2 in the ACC. Despite doubters and critics ripping them apart, they have used a solid two weeks to turn around their season. The Tar Heels won at Florida State and defeated both Maryland and Georgia Tech by double digits. Reggie Bullock and James Michael McAdoo have led the way offensively. The team has also cut down its turnovers and defensive lapses.

On January 12, NC State looked like a national championship calibar team. They capped off a 3-0 start in ACC play, their best since 1973-74, with an impressive 84-76 victory over No. 1 Duke. However, they have looked like a completely different team since. In a span of six days, the Wolfpack dropped two of their past three games. Poor shooting doomed them in a narrow defeat at Maryland, and a poor defensive performance in the second half saw them fall at Wake Forest on Tuesday.

4.  Temple (13-5, 2-2 A-10) at #9 Butler (16-3, 3-1 A-10) - Saturday, 6:00 PM EST, ESPN2

Temple wants to prove it belongs with the top teams in the Atlantic 10. They will have a chance to prove it on Saturday when they look to hand Butler their first home loss of the season. The Owls have had their share of ups and downs this season. Their best win to date is there upset of Syracuse in Madison Square Garden. Home losses to Canisius and St. Bonaventure have been disappointing performance for Temple. They have played a tough schedule getting blown out by Duke and falling short in an upset attempt at Kansas. Butler is the Owls' fourth top ten opponent of the season, so they won't be intimidated by playing in a hostile environment on the road.

Butler has been on an emotional roller coaster over the past week. One week ago, Roosevelt Jones made a steal and game-winning shot to knock off Gonzaga. However, they watched an opponent become the hometown hero just a few days later. La Salle senior Ramon Galloway drove coast-to-coast to lift the Explorers to their first victory over a top ten team since 1980. The loss was the Bulldogs' first in over two months. They will get a huge boost from the return of Rotnei Clarke from injury. The senior leads Butler in scoring with 16.3 points per game and is expected to play on Saturday.

3. #15 New Mexico (17-2, 4-0 MWC) at San Diego State (15-4, 3-2 MWC) - Saturday, 4:00 PM EST, NBCN

New Mexico has established itself at the top of the Mountain West Conference, but it has been far from pretty. Five point wins over UNLV and at Boise State in overtime have been far from certain outcomes. They also almost blew a 22-point lead to Colorado State before winning by five once again. The Lobos are a talented team with three top 25 wins and haven't lost in the new year. Junior Tony Snell has stepped up his game lately. Over his past three games, he has averaged 20.3 points per game.

San Diego State has looked strong for much of the season, but a recent rough patch knocked them out of the polls. They were ranked until they lost back-to-back games to UNLV and Wyoming. On Wednesday, they bounced back with a 21-point victory at Nevada. If the Aztecs hope to win the Mountain West, they would take a big step in the right direction with an upset of New Mexico. They will need to get strong play out of senior Chase Tapley and junior Jamaal Franklin if they hope to do that.

2. #13 Michigan State (17-3, 6-1 Big Ten) at #7 Indiana (17-2, 5-1 Big Ten) - Sunday, 1:00 PM EST, CBS

Since losing their Big Ten opener at Minnesota, Michigan State has won six straight conference games to take the lead in the nation's deepest and most difficult conference. Despite knocking off Ohio State and winning at Wisconsin, their schedule does not get an easier as they must travel to Assembly Hall to take on Indiana. The Spartans have played very well this season, but the end of the Wisconsin game showed that this team can be inept on the offensive end at times. Junior point guard Keith Appling can be the leader that can make the difference on the court when he is needed to.

Indiana has been No. 1 in the country twice this season, but has been unable to hold on to the spot. The first time the came up short in overtime to budding rival Butler. The second time around they were surprised at home by a confident Wisconsin team. Even though they are now ranked #7 in the country, this is one of the nation's best teams. Sophomore Cody Zeller is one of the nation's best players. Junior Victor Oladipo and senior Christian Watford are hard-working team players who are coaches' dream athletes and hustlers.

1. #2 Michigan (18-1, 5-1 Big Ten) at Illinois (15-5, 2-4 Big Ten) - Sunday, 6:00 PM EST, BTN

Exactly two weeks prior, Michigan played on a Sunday with a chance to win and become the No. 1 team in the country. They got off to a slow start and came up short at Ohio State. On Sunday night, they will get another chance when they travel to Assembly Hall to take on Illinois. The Wolverines boast a balanced attack and strong defense. Junior Tim Hardaway Jr. and freshmen Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III all are averaging in double digits scoring. As good as they have all been, it is sophomore point guard Trey Burke who runs the show as good as anyone in the country.

Illinois was one of college basketball's surprise stories in the early stages of the season. They got off to a 12-0 start and won the Maui Invitational. Beginning with a loss to Missouri, the Fighting Illini's season success came to a sudden and dramatic stop. They lost five out of seven games to fall to 1-4 in Big Ten play. Illinois did end a three-game losing streak with a 20-point win at Nebraska on Tuesday. Senior D.J. Richardson led the way with 30 points. The Illini will look to use a similar formula as they hope to upset Michigan.