Saturday, May 26, 2012

Western Conference Finals: Preview & Prediction

The Western Conference Finals, featuring the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs, is set to begin tomorrow night at 8:30 PM EST. My preview will look at the matchup position by position to see who has the advantage. I will conclude with my pre-series prediction.

Point Guard Matchup: Tony Parker & Russell Westbrook
Spurs: Tony Parker
Parker is having what many people consider his best season ever. He finished fifth in MVP voting. Parker's play in the postseason has been just as good. He is averaging 19.1 points per game and 7.1 assists per game. Parker also has very good career numbers against the Thunder, including a season-high 42 points on February 4.

Thunder: Russell Westbrook
Westbrook is ultra athletic and as volatile a scorer as point guards come. He has become more of an efficient shooter this season and even more so in the playoffs. In the postseason, Westbrook is shooting 47.2% from the field and averaging 24.1 points per game.

Advantage: None


Shooting Guard Matchup: Danny Green & Thabo Sefolosha
Spurs: Danny Green
When Manu Ginobili broke his hand in January, Green took the starting spot and never looked back. The Spurs love his athleticism and ability to defend the perimeter so well. Green's ability to stroke the three fits perfectly with the Spurs offense. He led the way in the last regular season matchup of these two teams with 21 points.

Thunder: Thabo Sefolosha
Sefolosha is considered to be one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. His athletic 6-7 frame allows him to matchup with the other team's best player. Not known for his offensive game, he can make the open three on occasion. He is 7 for 14 from behind the arc in the playoffs.

Advantage: Spurs

Small Forward Matchup: Kawhi Leonard & Kevin Durant
Spurs: Kawhi Leonard
Over the course of his rookie campaign, Leonard has continued to get better. This improvement has transpired in the postseason. Leonard is shooting 51.1% from the field and 45.4% from three in the playoffs. His 6-7 frame, long arms, and defensive awareness on the court will mean he will likely first defend superstar Kevin Durant.

Thunder: Kevin Durant
Durant's 28.0 points per game during the regular season earned him his third consecutive scoring title. He is a supreme athlete and has the dual package ability of being able to effortlessly attack the rim and drain most any jumper. No player means more to his team's success than Durant.

Advantage: Thunder

Power Forward Matchup: Tim Duncan & Serge Ibaka
Spurs: Tim Duncan
Duncan is possibly the greatest power forward ever to play the game. His post moves are as consistent as ever, and his presence is the foundation to the Spurs defense. Despite being 36-years-old, Duncan's numbers have improved drastically with his increased minutes in the playoffs. During the Spurs last series, he averaged 20 points and 9 rebounds per game.

Thunder: Serge Ibaka
Ibaka led the NBA in blocks this season averaging 3.65 per game. Due to his emergence as a top shot-blocker and post defender, he finished second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting. Ibaka is still a young, raw talent from the Congo and will continue to improve.

Advantage: Spurs

Center Matchup: Boris Diaw & Kendrick Perkins
Spurs: Boris Diaw
Diaw came over to the Spurs in a midseason trade with the Charlotte Bobcats. Ever since, he has assumed the starting center role for the Spurs. Having played a variety of positions in his career, Diaw is a diverse big man who can stretch the floor. He is also a great passer for a big man.

Thunder: Kendrick Perkins
Bringing championship experience, Perkins is a hardworking post presence who is a solid rebounder and defender. He struggled mightily against the Spurs during the regular season. He also might have his handful defending Diaw's versatility.

Advantage: Spurs

Bench Matchup: Manu Ginobli & James Harden
Spurs Bench
The Spurs had the most points off the bench during the regular season and that has continued in the playoffs. Manu Ginobli is the clear leader. His veteran experience and playmaking ability is crucial for the Spurs. Guard Gary Neal and center Tiago Splitter make notable contributions off the bench. Stephen Jackson may be needed off the bench to help defend Durant.

Thunder Bench
James Harden, this season's Sixth Man of the Year, is the energizer off the bench. He is averaging 17 points per game in the playoffs. Derek Fisher brings a veteran presence at guard. Nazr Mohammad and Nick Collison are important post players off the bench.

Advantage: None

Coaching Matchup: Gregg Popovich & Scott Brooks
Spurs: Gregg Popovich
Popovich is the longest tenured coach in North American professional sports. He is a genius on the court and has an eye for spotting talent. His four championship titles and 116 playoff victories is the most among active coaches.

Thunder: Scott Brooks
Brooks is one of the NBA's best young coaches. He has a 152-78 record, despite coaching one of the league's youngest teams. Brooks was also named coach of the year in 2009-10.

Advantage: Spurs

Prediction
Both teams have basically crushed their opponents up until now. The Spurs are on an 18-game winning streak. Their average margin of defeat in the postseason so far has been 14 points. The Thunder only have one loss in the playoff so far. They knocked out the past two NBA champions to get to this point. Nothing will be easy for either of these teams. I expect this series to be hard fought throughout. That being said, I like the Spurs to win this series. I don't believe the Thunder will have an answer for Tim Duncan. The Spurs motion offense has been running on all cylinders during the playoffs. The Spurs talent from top to bottom is hard to match. I don't think Durant and Westbrook can do enough to carry the Thunder through. The supporting cast isn't good enough yet. While I do believe the Thunder are on their way to a title, I don't believe it will happen this year. The Spurs will do enough to hold off and put away the Thunder.

My prediction: Spurs in six games.

Friday, May 25, 2012

Rangers & Rays Offenses Explode in Wins

Rangers outfieler Nelson Cruz had 8 RBIs, including a grand slam. (David Klutho)
With the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays facing off this weekend, everyone expected a lot of power and runs to be scored, but I doubt anyone expected to see this. Blue Jays starter Brandon Morrow lasted only 2/3 of an inning and gave up 6 runs. Josh Hamilton and Yorvit Torrealba both hit solo home runs the next two innings. The Rangers added three runs in the 6th, and Nelson Cruz capped things off with a grand slam in the 7th. The Rangers hammered out 18 hits and 14 runs. Cruz matched a career-high with 8 RBIs. The Blue Jays simply could not recover, ultimately losing the game 14-3.

After Franklin Morales threw behind Luke Scott, the benches cleared. (Charles Krupa)
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox really don't like each other. John Lester was on the mound for the Red Sox, but didn't have his A game. The Rays took Lester deep three times. Matt Joyce stuck the big blow with a grand slam in the 3rd. Elliot Johnson and Carlos Pena hit back-to-back bombs in the 4th. With the Rays leading 7-4 in the 6th, Rays reliever Burke Badenhop hit Dustin Pedroia with a pitch. Fast forward to the top of the 9th, same score. Red Sox reliever Franklin Morales threw behind Luke Scott. Scott had some words for Morales, and the benches cleared. No punches were thrown, but lots of words were. Fernando Rodney closed out the win for the Rays in the ninth.

Two very exciting starts to a pair of great weekend series. The Rangers showed again why they have one of the most feared lineups in baseball. I expect the Blue Jays to play better, but Arlington is a tough place to win for anyone. The Rays and the Red Sox were already fired up for this series, but will be even more so now. Things could get interesting with David Price and Josh Beckett on the mound tomorrow. The Rays showed they have just as much hitting to keep up with the Red Sox in any game. We will just have to watch and see how these two series unfold the rest of the weekend.

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Indians and Reds Complete Home Sweeps

Indians closer Chris Perez celebrates another save. (David Richard)
The Cleveland Indians don't care how many people come to watch them play. Right now, they are too busy winning. This afternoon the Indians completed a sweep of their division rival Detroit Tigers. Today's game featured a pitchers duel between Tigers ace Justin Verlander and Indians young stud Justin Masterson. Verlander only gave up a solo home run to Shin-Soo Choo and a RBI single to Jose Lopez in eight innings of work, but he only got limited support from a floundering Tigers offense. Masterson didn't dominant the Tigers (gave up five hits and had five walks), but he limited the damage, only allowing one run. He gave the 2-1 lead to setup man Vinnie Pestano, who earned his 12th hold of the season. Closer Chris Perez shut the door in the ninth, picking up his 16th save of the season. After criticizing the Indians' fans, Perez backed up his talk with a perfect save in each of the three games in the series. Winners of eight of their last ten, the first-place Indians (26-18) now have a 3 1/2-game lead over the White Sox and a 6-game lead over the Tigers in the AL Central.

Rookie Devin Mesoraco hits first career grand slam. (Al Behrman)

The Cincinnati Reds powered their way to a sweep of the Atlanta Braves. In their series opener, the Reds hit four solo home runs, including three in a row, to win 4-1. During Tuesday night's 4-3 win, Brandon Phillips went yard twice and had three RBIs. Last night, Todd Frazier hit a walk-off solo shot to propel the Reds to the 2-1 win. Tonight's finale saw rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco cap the series sweep off in style. The Reds were down 2-1 in the sixth, but had the bases loaded. That's when Mesoraco connected for his first career grand slam. The Reds pitching definitely deserves credit as well. They held the Braves to only eight runs in the four-game series. The Reds closer-by-committee worked to perfection. Sean Marshall, Arolids Chapman, and Logan Ondrusek each picked by a hold and a save during the sweep. The Reds (25-19) now have won six games in a row, which puts them in first place in the NL Central following a loss by the St. Louis Cardinals.

Two Ohio teams completed home sweeps tonight. Both are unexpectedly in first place in their respective divisions, but absolutely deserve it. They are playing complete team baseball. It will be interesting to see if they can keep it going the rest of the season.