Leap Day Bubble Watch

Tomorrow is Leap Day. It only comes once every four years, so it is kind of a big deal. The NCAA Tournament only comes once a year in March and is kind of a big deal too. With March quickly coming, teams need to do all they can to show the tournament committee why they should be invited to the Big Dance. Five teams have a big shot to make a case one way or another on Wednesday.

Miami - 17-10 (8-6), RPI: 47, SOS: 38

Few people thought Miami would be able to make it to where they have a chance to make the tournament, but here they are. A big reason why is because they picked up their second win over a ranked opponent in a span of three weeks. The Hurricane's resume has some definite holes (3-9 record agaisnt the RPI Top 100 and a 5-7 road/neutral record), so they can't sit back and relax now. Tomorrow they play at NC State. This will be a tough win to earn, but one they could really use. A loss won't burst their bubble, but a win would certainly help their case.

Cincinnati - 20-9 (10-6), RPI: 76, SOS: 132

Cincinnati seems to be a team that can't decide whether or not they deserve to go to the Big Dance. Last week, they got a big win over Louisville, but then lost at South Florida. That isn't a knock on the Bulls, but the Bearcats' lack of consistency has hurt the resume significantly. They have five wins over the RPI Top 50, but their non-conference play was mostly pathetic (i.e. SOS of 323 and a loss to Presbyterian at home). No team in the last 15 years has ever gotten an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament with a RPI outside the Top 75. Cincinnati's last regular season chance to impress the committee comes tomorrow when they host Marquette. An upset win would be huge for the Bearcats.

Purdue - 19-10 (9-7), RPI: 39, SOS: 24

Personally, I have never thought Purdue's resume was as strong as people make it out to be. However, they finally got a big win at Michigan last Saturday. Prior to that game, the Boilermakers were 0-7 against ranked opponents, but the win over the Wolverines may have been the signature one they needed. Tomorrow night, they host Penn State. You may think no big deal, but the Nittany Lions won by 20 in their matchup earlier this year. While that was a long time ago, Purdue can't afford a let down after their big win. It could be quite detrimental.

Texas - 18-11 (8-8), RPI: 55, SOS: 29

Interestingly enough, Texas has a similar resume to Purdue. They have a middling conference record and have struggled against ranked opponents as well (0-6). A 4-9 record against the RPI Top 100 and a 4-9 road/neutral mark puts the Longhorn squarely on the bubble. They know they can't afford another bad loss. They survived last Saturday's overtime bout with Texas Tech, but tomorrow they need to take care of business against Oklahoma. A win won't seal their fate, but a loss might certainly.

Mississippi State - 19-10 (6-8), RPI: 63, SOS: 68

A mere 2 1/2 weeks ago, Mississippi State seemed like a lock for the NCAA tournament. However, they have now lost five in a row and seem to be in disarray. When asked about his team's odds of making the tourament, team star Arnett Moultrie said, "Maybe not. Probably not." That is not what you want to hear if you are a Bulldogs fan. This team is now only 6-8 in SEC play and have just a 5-7 road/neutral record. Mississippi State travels to conference doormat South Carolina tomorrow. The Gamecocks did upset Alabama early this year, so anything is possible. A Bulldogs loss would almost certainly burst their once promising bubble.