Saturday, March 31, 2012

Frozen Four: Predicting the Victor

Hello, Tampa. It's good to see you this time of year.

It is fascinating to look over the past season and see all the things that might have been. Crazy to see all the ups and downs every team had. Incredible to see all the injuries teams battled through.
And to realize that it all comes down to one weekend in the palms of Florida to crown a champion.

At this point, the games are set--Ferris State will play Union and Boston College gets Minnesota.
Let's break it down.


FERRIS STATE BULLDOGS
From the cold north of Michigan, Ferris State players probably don't mind the warm temperatures or the time off from college. Especially when there's hockey to be played.
This is Ferris State's first-ever Frozen Four appearance, and it couldn't come at a better time. Since the switch of the season into 2012, the Bulldogs are 4-1-1 against teams that made the NCAA tournament (including games played in-tournament). Since 2012, Ferris has gone 14-3-4, with two of those three coming in the CCHA playoffs. While that may cause Ferris to look unstoppable, losing in the playoffs is not a good thing--especially to a perennial-cellar team like Bowling Green. The Bulldogs looked quite vulnerable at that point, yet rebounded nicely in the tournament with 2-1 wins over Denver and Cornell. Ferris will be quite the task for Union to take down.

UNION COLLEGE DUTCHMEN
Union comes in with the least experience against this year's tournament teams during the regular season. Including the tournament, they only played the teams six times, going 3-1-2. That said, Union is solid. They have 17 wins in their last 21 games (17-2-2). The Dutchmen took down Michigan State 3-1 and UMass-Lowell 4-2. Though their top-twenty schedule is probably the least experienced of the four remaining teams, the Dutchmen have been unstoppable. They get the job done. Plain and simple, the Dutchmen will give the Bulldogs a run for their money...and could even win the whole thing.

BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES
It helps that BC has yet to give up a goal in the NCAA tournament. Goaltender Parker Milner has only given up seven goals in the last ten games...with five shutouts for the Eagles. The current consecutive shutout minutes for the BC goalkeeper is currently at 149 minutes and 31 seconds. Boston College is easily the best team coming into the tournament, as they have won their last 17 games. It will be a daunting task for anyone (including Minnesota) to score on this team, much less beat them.

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
Minnesota has an offense that has exploded during the NCAA tournament, scoring 12 goals in just two games (7-3 over Boston University and 5-2 over rival North Dakota).  Minnesota, however, is the only one of the Frozen Four teams that is not coming into the tournament smoking-hot. They haven't been bad...13-7 since 2012...but they also started the year at 10-1. And they have only been 7-5-1 against teams in this year's tournament (including NCAAs). One thing the Gophers do not lack though is offense and experience. They have five championship titles, with the last one in 2003. They are hungry enough to knock off BC, if they can score. Which they can.


There you have it...my breakdown of the teams. Now comes the hard part: deciding which team will emerge victorious. Here are my predictions.

Ferris State:           2     Union:           3
Boston College:     3      Minnesota:   4


Minnesota: 3
Union: 2  (OT)


NCAA Champion: University of Minnesota


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