Breaking Down the Early Favorites for the BCS Bowls

Mike Gillislee and the Florida Gators were the big beneficiaries when the first BCS polls were released Sunday. (Sam Greenwood)

The first BCS polls for this season were released today. You can check out the polls for yourself below. There are definitely some surprises, such as the computers really liking Florida. Based off the polls, I am going to reveal my current predictions for the BCS bowls and look at which teams are on the radar for all of them as well.

The first BCS polls of the season were released Sunday. (Graphic credit to ESPN.com)

Discover BCS National Championship Game

Current Prediction: Alabama vs. Oregon

On the radar for BCS No. 1 & No. 2 spots: Florida, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Mississippi State, LSU, Oklahoma, USC

Analysis: Alabama has the edge on Florida right now in the human polls. If they both win out, they will meet in the SEC Championship Game to decide who will advance to the National Championship game. Both have hurdles to get past to get to that point. Oregon doesn't rank near was well in the computer polls, but if they go undefeated, it is hard to imagine them not in the National Championship game. Among the remaining undefeated teams, Notre Dame has the edge on Kansas State and Mississippi State based on strength of schedule. LSU, Oklahoma, USC are the one loss teams that could have a chance if they win out.

Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio

Current Prediction: Michigan vs. USC

On the radar for the Big Ten spot: Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa

On the radar for the Pac-12 spot: Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona State

Analysis: With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible, it is hard to determine which team will arise out of the mediocrity as the Big Ten champion. With so much still undecided, I have to favor in honor of who I believe the biggest difference maker is. That player is Michigan's Denard Robinson. He has to make smart decisions  but all the talent needed is there. If Oregon doesn't make it to the National Championship game, they will likely be the Pac-12 team here. The question becomes if USC loses to both Oregon and Notre Dame, will they be ranked high enough to be eligible for a BCS bowl? If not, Oregon State or Arizona State could sneak in as an outsider.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Current Prediction: Kansas State vs. Notre Dame

On the radar for the Big 12 spot: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, West Virginia

On the radar for the at-large spot: Florida State, Clemson, Oregon, USC, Oregon State, Ohio

Analysis: The Big 12 champion will almost certainly play here as Kansas State's odds of getting into the National Championship are slim to none. Right now, I am giving the edge to the Wildcats to play here based the fact that are the most well-positioned. I do not believe that they are the best team in the conference. Should they stumble, that opens the door for the above stated other Big 12 contenders. All three have legitimate shots at making it. Notre Dame will almost certainly play here, unless they are playing in the National Championship game or have more than two losses. If one of those things happens, it opens up the door for a one-loss, non-conference champion from the ACC or Pac-12. The Cinderella team looking in from the outside is Ohio University, who is 7-0. If the Bobcats run the table, the BCS will be busted wide open.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Current Prediction: South Carolina vs. Oklahoma

On the radar for the SEC spot: Alabama, Florida, Mississippi State, Georgia, LSU

On the radar for the at-large spot: Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas Tech

Analysis: With how loaded the top of the SEC is, you could end up seeing any of the contenders here. If Alabama wins the conference championship and goes undefeated, they will be in the National Championship game. However, the team they bet in the SEC title game, will likely miss out on the Sugar Bowl due to the loss. That opens the door up for a whole slate of SEC teams. The second best Big 12 will almost certainly play here, unless a team from their conference is in the National Championship game (not likely).

Discover Orange Bowl

Current Prediction: Florida State vs. Rutgers

On the radar for the ACC spot: Clemson, Virginia Tech

On the radar for the Big East spot: Louisville, Cincinnati

Analysis: It doesn't seem likely that a BCS buster will play a role in this game, meaning it will be the ACC champion against the Big East champion. Even though Florida State and Clemson both have one conference loss, I am giving the edge to the Seminoles based on their head-to-head win over the Tigers. The Big East boasts three undefeated teams as their cream of their crop. Louisville and Cincinnati have a big matchup coming up on October 26. I give Rutgers the edge over both of them based on their rock solid defense. The Scarlet Knights play the Cardinals the last week of the season in a game that could have huge implications.